Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: A Hydrological Modelling Study Using EURO-CORDEX Climate Scenarios

Climate change affects the hydrological cycle of river basins and strongly impacts water resource availability. The mechanistic model PROMET was driven with an ensemble EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections under emission scenarios RCP2.6 RCP8.5 to analyze changes in temperature, precipitation, soil content, plant stress, snow equivalent (SWE) runoff dynamics Danube River Basin (DRB) near (2031–2060) far future (2071–2100) compared historical reference (1971–2000). remain moderate for become severe RCP8.5, exhibiting strong year-round warming trends wetter winters Upper drier summers Lower Danube, leading decreasing summer contents, increasing stress SWE. Discharge seasonality shifts toward winter runoff, while risk high flows increases along entire mainstream low River. Our results reveal change-induced discrepancies between surplus demand space time, likely intensified upstream–downstream inter-sectoral competition DRB change.